The History of Planning Poker
Planning Poker started in 2002 as a consensus-based agile estimation method. Explore its evolution, including Scrum Poker and planning poker apps, and its vital role in scrum and agile teams today.
2002 - The First Mention of Planning Poker
Mike Cohn is often mentioned as the inventor of Scrum Poker, but three years earlier, a software entrepreneur named James Grenning published a short article titled “Planning Poker or How to Avoid Analysis Paralysis While Release Planning.”
This sketch 
was attached to it… well, don't forget, it was 2002, and MS Paint was the tool to go! :)
In his article, Grenning highlights common challenges agile teams face during release planning: lengthy discussions and lack of team engagement.
He noted that traditional estimation methods often resulted in wasted time without significantly altering the estimates.
To address these issues, he introduced Planning Poker as a lightweight, game-like approach to make the estimation process faster and more inclusive for agile teams.
The mechanics are straightforward: during a poker session, the customer reads a backlog story, and after a brief discussion, each team member privately writes their estimate on a card.
The cards are then revealed simultaneously. If estimates vary, the team discusses the differences and tries to reach a consensus. This method not only accelerates the process but also ensures that everyone is engaged and contributes to the estimation.
Grenning acknowledges the contributions of Symantec Corp. for experimenting with Planning Poker and credits individuals like Lowell Lindstrom and Brian Button for their insights and warnings about potential pitfalls. He also included a deck of cards in his article, specifically designed for unitless numbers or ideal programming days, ranging from 1 to 10 days and an infinity card for estimates longer than two weeks. At that time, the concept of story points did not exist, so this deck helped development teams maintain realistic story sizes during planning sessions.
2005 - Popularization by Mike Cohn:
In 2005, Planning Poker gained significant traction thanks to Mike Cohn, who included it in his landmark book "Agile Estimating and Planning." Cohn, a respected figure in the agile community, labeled Planning Poker as an excellent method for agile teams to achieve quick yet reliable estimates by combining expert opinions and analogy.
He emphasized its collaborative nature, involving all team members, including programmers, testers, and analysts, but not the product owner in the estimation itself. The technique aligns well with agile principles, offering a balance between speed and accuracy while encouraging team discussions to resolve estimate disparities.
Cohn also discussed the use of predefined cards and iterative rounds to reach a consensus, stressing the importance of efficient and focused discussion enabled by tools like a sand timer. He backed up the technique's validity with research studies, indicating that group-based estimation leads to better results. His endorsement and detailed explanation in the book significantly boosted Planning Poker's visibility and adoption in agile circles, solidifying its place as a staple in agile estimation practices.
2006 - Agile Conferences
The first significant visibility boost for Planning Poker came at the AGILE'06 conference. Talks and studies there highlighted the benefits of group estimation using Planning Poker for both release and iteration planning in extreme programming (XP). Research presented at the conference showed that while group estimation generally outperforms individual estimation, it could still be hindered by dominant personalities and anchoring effects.
A study analyzing 101 user story estimates by an XP team found that introducing Planning Poker improved the team's estimation accuracy in most cases, although it sometimes increased error in extreme cases.
In the subsequent years, more agile conferences continued to mention and endorse Planning Poker, further cementing its role in agile estimation practices.
2009 - The Scrum Guide
In 2009, the release of the Scrum Guide brought significant clarity to the agile landscape by defining key roles, events, and artifacts within the Scrum framework. Authored by Ken Schwaber and Jeff Sutherland, the Scrum Guide detailed essential terminologies like Product Owner, Scrum Master, Sprint, Sprint Planning, and Backlog.
This comprehensive guide influenced the way Scrum teams approach agile planning and estimation. The clearly defined responsibilities of roles such as the Product Owner and Scrum Master streamlined the estimation process, while the structured events like Sprint Planning facilitated better agile estimation practices, including consensus-based methods like Planning Poker.
The Scrum Guide's formalization of the Sprint structure, combining iterative planning and review sessions, provided a robust framework in which tools like Planning Poker could thrive. This ensured that agile teams had a well-defined blueprint for integrating techniques to achieve accurate and effective story point estimations during their sprints.
2011 - Digital Tools Introduction
In 2011, the field of agile estimation witnessed a significant shift with the introduction of digital tools designed for Planning Poker. This era saw the release of several mobile apps and web-based solutions, bringing the concept of Planning Poker into the digital age. These innovations enabled remote agile teams to utilize Planning Poker effectively, regardless of geographical barriers.
Major agile project management platforms like JIRA and Trello began to integrate Planning Poker functionalities directly into their systems, making it easier for teams to incorporate agile estimation techniques seamlessly into their existing workflows. The implementation of these digital Planning Poker apps not only streamlined the estimation process but also facilitated real-time collaboration and enhanced accuracy during sprint planning sessions.
This digital transformation allowed agile teams to maintain the benefits of consensus-based estimation while gaining the flexibility to operate efficiently in distributed environments. By embracing these technological advancements, agile teams could now execute sprint planning and agile estimation with improved precision and inclusivity, ensuring that every voice was heard, no matter where team members were located.
2020 - Remote Work Surge
The COVID-19 pandemic led to a massive shift toward remote work, significantly increasing the use of digital planning poker tools. Agile teams worldwide adapted to working from home, and as a result, the necessity for effective remote estimation methods grew. Digital planning poker apps became essential in helping scrum teams maintain consensus-based estimation processes while working remotely. This surge highlighted the importance of agile estimation tools that facilitate collaboration and accurate story point estimates during sprint planning, even when team members are not in the same physical location.
